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Digital Mobile Radio Revenues to Increase 112% by 2013 (3/9/10)
Revenues of mobile radios based on digital technologies such as Project 25 (P25), Digital Mobile Radio (DMR) and NXDN are expected to increase by 112 percent through the end of 2013 in North America.
"Motorola has already achieved phenomenal success with its DMR-based MOTOTRBO system in North America, selling well to all vertical markets, including PSS," said Jatinder Thandi, a research analyst with IMS Research. "This year marks the entrance of a second tranche of DMR manufacturers, with HYT America's new Hytera DMR offering. More competition in the DMR market will inevitably lower prices and provide greater choice, which will benefit end users."
In addition to DMR, Kenwood's NEXEDGE and Icom's Idas technologies have also made large dents in the analog installed base in 2009, particularly in the business and industrial sectors. "Over the next five years, the low-cost digital installed base will be measured in the millions worldwide," Thandi said. "Lower-priced DMR and NXDN-based systems have removed the barrier of cost, and the large base of LMR users outside of first responders have begun to move to digital en masse."
The P25 market is also expected increase during the next few years, driven by prices of Phase 1 equipment falling to realistic levels in the VHF/UHF bands. As the Jan. 1, 2013, narrowbanding deadline approaches, shipments are expected to spike. However, the future of 700 MHz narrowband voice networks remains unclear, IMS analysts said. Thirty-two of the 55 regional planning committee (RPC) plans have been approved. However, the availability of P25 Phase 2-compatible equipment remains an issue. In addition, the expected high price of Phase 2 equipment is forecast to have a delaying effect on these network rollouts.
Beyond the core LMR technologies, a number of technologies are worth keeping an eye on during the next few years, including push-to-talk over cellular (PoC) and satellite. The big three North American cellular operators are all placing new effort on their push-to-talk offerings, IMS Research analysts said. Sprint Nextel renewed its commitment to its iDEN subscriber base last year, while AT&T and Verizon both provide second-generation PoC services operating on 3G networks, removing the setup and voice delays and enabling interoperability with existing LMR systems. IMS Research estimates that more than 40 percent of mobile radio users in North America use cellular phones, PoC and iDEN, primarily for LMR coverage extension and data capabilities.
Another development includes plans to introduce satellite/LMR handsets, similar to the recently launched hybrid satellite/cellular phone by AT&T and TerreStar Networks. Development on satellite/LMR hybrid devices is already in progress, and completed products could be seen as early as 2011. The prospect of always-available communications during disasters when traditional LMR infrastructure may be out of use is sure to entice mission-critical entities.
IMS Research recently published "The World Market for Licensed Mobile Radio - 2010 Edition" and in-depth technology report "The World Market for DMR/dPMR - 2010 Edition."
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